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Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Release
LONDON – International risk mitigation company AKE has raised the risk rating for Mozambique from AKE20 to AKE21 (Heightened Security Concerns). The rating change follows a series of attacks on the main north-south EN1 highway by militant opposition party RENAMO.
On 2 June militants attacked a military-escorted convoy near Muxungue, Sofala province, injuring five soldiers and two civilians. Later on the same day, RENAMO spokesman António Muchanga announced an end to the group’s unilateral ceasefire, which had been in place since 7 May.
RENAMO claims that it is carrying out attacks on the road in order to prevent military supplies and troops being moved into Gorongosa district, where it claims the government has been carrying out offensive operations in an attempt to kill or capture RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama over the last week. The government denies the allegations.
According to AKE sub-Saharan Africa specialist Alasdair Reid the developments pose a serious concern.
“The cancellation of the ceasefire and the resumption of violence is a blow to ongoing talks between the FRELIMO government and RENAMO. It also threatens stability in the run-up to the October 2014 general elections, which, barring any major upset will likely be won by FRELIMO candidate Felipe Nyussi.”
According to Reid many believed that the security situation would improve after Dhlakama officially registered as a presidential candidate on 8 May.
“However, for foreign investors, particularly energy and mining firms that have considerable investments in Mozambique, the potential spread of RENAMO militancy is a serious concern. In particular, any attacks on infrastructure would threaten the interests of multinational mining firms which depend on critical railway lines from the country’s interior to the coast in order to export coal from Tete province.”
However, Reid also pointed out that while further attacks by RENAMO are expected over the coming days, particularly along the EN1 road, “violence is likely to remain geographically limited to Sofala province given the limited popular support for RENAMO.”
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