Cautious Optimism is the Outlook on Libya

Since the ouster and resultant death of Muammar Qaddafi almost one year ago, Libya has seen some fits and starts on the security end of putting the country back together. AKE, the security and risk consultants believe that despite the ongoing violence there is reason for cautious optimism for the country.
 

AKE said that after contracting by around 60%, national economic output has almost returned to levels seen before the conflict in the North African country began in 2011. The peak oil production of 2011 is likely to be matched by the end of this year. It also said that Libya has seen positive progress in the development of a transparent and representative political system.

Areas to be cautious on however are some of the challenges that it faces such as high unemployment, widespread distribution of firearms, and emerging social divisions that have created dynamics prone to volatility.

According to Alan Fraser, AKE’s Libya specialist, crime levels are rising, as are levels of militancy. “At least two people were killed in three car bomb attacks in the capital last week. These were the first terrorist-related fatalities in the country since the fall of Qaddafi.”

The national congress faces a difficult task in managing these conditions and paving the way for future stability.

AKE will provide a presentation on the security and political risk issues facing the country on  August 30. The event, entitled ‘Libya: The Opportunities and Challenges’ will be held in conjunction with the Libyan British Business Council (LBBC) at the British Arab Commercial Bank in central London.