Continental Focus, International Reach

Oil Demand Falls Counter-Seasonally in November to Below Year-Ago Levels

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Press Release

Oil demand in JODI-reporting countries fell ~1.6 mb/d month-on-month in November to ~0.2 mb/d below year-ago levels, having spent much of the year at record highs, according to newly released data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

Having recorded seasonal highs from May to October, the demand decline in November was driven by China, the US, and Saudi Arabia, the data showed.

Production of crude oil production rose slightly month-on-month in November but was still marginally below the five-year average production level. Crude production was down 0.9 mb/d year-on-year led by a 1.7 mb/d y/y drop in Saudi Arabia.

Crude and product inventories built by 41 mb in November but remained 269 mb below the five-year average.

Natural gas production in JODI-reporting countries rose to a record high on gains in China, Nigeria, and Norway. Notably, the latest database update does not include Russian production.

Global natural gas demand rose seasonally in November and was near the five-year average level, according to the data. Total gas inventories fell by 5.4 bcm but were still at an all-time seasonal high.

The JODI oil and gas databases will be updated at noon London time today, with 49 countries reporting oil data for November and 55 countries reporting natural gas data.

Oil data highlights for the month of November:

  • Saudi Arabia

o          Crude production fell by 122 kb/d to 8.82 mb/d.

o          Crude exports rose by 39 kb/d to 6.34 mb/d, a 5-month high.

o          Direct burn of crude fell by 30 kb/d to 501 kb/d

o          Crude inventories built by 0.14 mb and product inventories fell by 4.2 mb.

  • China

o          Crude imports fell by 1.2 mb/d to 10.36 mb/d, a 4-month low.

o          Total product demand fell by 1.1 mb/d to 15.21 mb/d.

o          Product exports rose by 24 kb/d to 1.30 mb/d.

o          Refinery intake fell by 1.12 mb/d to 14.53 mb/d.

  • United States

o          Crude production fell by 71 kb/d to 13.18 mb/d

o          Crude exports rose by 569 kb/d to 4.68 mb/d

o          Total product demand fell by 355 kb/d to 20.33 mb/d

o          Crude inventories built by 19.6 mb and product inventories rose by 23.4 mb.

Natural gas November data highlights:

  • Natural gas demand rose seasonally by 28.3 bcm.
  • Natural gas production rose by 0.7 bcm to a record high for JODI-reporting countries (does not include Russia).
  • EU+UK gas consumption rose by 11.2 bcm but was still near a five-year seasonal low. Inventories fell by 4.3 bcm to stand nearly 95 percent full at the end of the month.
  • Total gas inventories fell by 5.4 bcm month-on-month but were at a seasonal record high.

The full JODI oil and gas database was updated on Monday, January 22nd with data through November 2023 and can be viewed at jodidb.org or jodidata.org. The next update will be on Monday, February 19th with data through December 2023.


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