Petroleum Africa
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Thursday, April 2, 2015
For 2014, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that, excluding Iran, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned about $730 billion in net oil export revenues (unadjusted for inflation). This represents an 11% decline from the $824 billion earned in 2013, largely because of the decline in average annual crude oil prices, and to a lesser extent from decreases in the amount of OPEC net oil exports. This was the lowest earnings for the group since 2010.
These net export earnings do not include Iran’s revenues because of the difficulties associated with estimating Iran’s earnings, including the country’s inability to receive payments and possible price discounts Iran offers its existing customers. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $246 billion in 2014, representing approximately one-third of total OPEC oil revenues.
For 2015, EIA projects that OPEC net oil export revenues (excluding Iran) could fall further to about $380 billion in 2015 (unadjusted for inflation) as a result of the much lower annual crude oil prices expected in 2015. EIA expects that OPEC’s crude oil production and exports (as a whole) in 2015 will be unchanged from 2014 levels, following OPEC’s decision on November 27 to not change its production targets from previous levels.
Consistent with OPEC’s announcement, Saudi Arabia has indicated its intention to maintain its export market share rather than cut production to keep prices higher. In the past, Saudi Arabia often played the role of the swing producer, temporarily cutting its production to offset supply growth elsewhere or weaker global demand, or increasing its output level to make up for a supply shortfall. On a per capita basis, OPEC (excluding Iran) net oil export earnings are expected to decline by half from about out $2,186 in 2014 to $1,114 in 2015. OPEC net oil export revenues in 2015 are based on projections of global oil prices and OPEC production levels from EIA’s March 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
For 2016, OPEC revenues are projected to rebound to $515 billion with the expected rebound in crude oil prices.
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